## Iowa Poll Accuracy: Historical Comparison to Presidential Elections
The Iowa Poll is one of the most well-known and respected political polls in the United States. It is conducted by the University of Iowa's Public Policy Center and has been tracking public opinion in Iowa since 1988.
The Iowa Poll is often used to predict the outcome of presidential elections. However, it is important to note that the poll is not always accurate. In fact, the Iowa Poll has been wrong in several recent presidential elections.
### Historical Comparison
The following table compares the results of the Iowa Poll to the actual results of presidential elections in Iowa since 1988:
| Year | Iowa Poll Winner | Actual Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 1988 | George H.W. Bush | George H.W. Bush |
| 1992 | Bill Clinton | Bill Clinton |
| 1996 | Bob Dole | Bill Clinton |
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Al Gore |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | George W. Bush |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Barack Obama |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Barack Obama |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton | Donald Trump |
| 2020 | Joe Biden | Donald Trump |
As the table shows, the Iowa Poll has been wrong in three of the last five presidential elections. In 2016, the poll predicted that Hillary Clinton would win Iowa by 3 points. However, Trump won the state by 9 points. In 2020, the poll predicted that Joe Biden would win Iowa by 3 points. However, Trump won the state by 8 points.
### Factors Affecting Accuracy
There are a number of factors that can affect the accuracy of the Iowa Poll. These include:
### Conclusion
The Iowa Poll is a well-respected political poll, but it is not always accurate. There are a number of factors that can affect the accuracy of the poll, including sample size, response rate, and methodology. It is important to be aware of these factors when interpreting the results of the poll.