Debunking the Myth of GOP Bias in Poll Averages
The notion that poll averages favor Republican candidates is a common refrain among Democrats and their supporters. However, the evidence simply does not support this claim. In fact, a recent study by the FiveThirtyEight polling aggregator found that poll averages have been slightly more accurate in predicting Democratic victories in recent elections.
How Poll Averages Work
Poll averages are calculated by taking the average of all recent polls that meet certain criteria, such as sample size and methodology. This process helps to smooth out the noise and provide a more accurate estimate of the true state of the race.
Critics of poll averages argue that they are biased because they give more weight to polls that are conducted by Republican-leaning pollsters. However, this is not the case. In fact, FiveThirtyEight found that poll averages have been more accurate in predicting Democratic victories in recent elections, even though most of the polls that are included in the averages are conducted by Republican-leaning pollsters.
The Evidence
The evidence clearly shows that poll averages are not biased in favor of Republican candidates. In fact, if anything, they have been slightly more accurate in predicting Democratic victories in recent elections. This is likely due to the fact that poll averages help to smooth out the noise and provide a more accurate estimate of the true state of the race.
Conclusion
The myth of GOP bias in poll averages is just that—a myth. The evidence clearly shows that poll averages are not biased in favor of Republican candidates. In fact, if anything, they have been slightly more accurate in predicting Democratic victories in recent elections.