Could Trump Win the Public's Support Yet Lose the Presidency?
The Role of Electoral College and Swing States
Despite popular belief, the US presidential election is not a nationwide contest. Instead, it's a collection of 50 state elections. Each state awards its electoral votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state.
This means that it's possible for a presidential candidate to win the popular vote nationwide but lose the electoral vote, and thus the presidency. This happened most recently in 2016 when Donald Trump won the presidency despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by nearly 3 million votes.
The Electoral College system gives disproportionate power to smaller, more rural states. This means that candidates can win the presidency even if they don't win the popular vote in the most populous states.
In 2016, Trump won the presidency by winning key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. These states were decided by very narrow margins, and a small shift in the vote could have given Clinton the presidency.
The Impact of Electoral College Reform
There have been numerous proposals to reform the Electoral College, including abolishing it altogether and replacing it with a popular vote. However, such reform would require a constitutional amendment, which is extremely difficult to pass.
Some argue that the Electoral College system is undemocratic and unfairly favors certain states. However, others argue that it protects the interests of smaller states and prevents the tyranny of the majority.
The Importance of Swing States
In close elections, swing states can play a decisive role. These states are typically competitive, and the outcome of the election can hinge on the outcome of the vote in these states.
In 2020, the swing states that will likely determine the outcome of the election include Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona. These states are all very close, and a small shift in the vote could give either Trump or Democratic nominee Joe Biden the presidency.
Conclusion
It's possible for a presidential candidate to win the popular vote nationwide but lose the presidency due to the Electoral College system. The outcome of the election is often determined by swing states, which are states that are typically competitive and the outcome of the election can hinge on the outcome of the vote in these states.